Thursday, June 30, 2011

mel gibson cannes 2011

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  • [S]Mel Gibson Lets It All Hang



  • riva2005
    04-09 11:41 AM
    Yes, pete, other people should have hurdles. So when they stumble on those hurdles, it would be your gain.

    Its a zero sum game.

    We cannot all unite and work on this issue. So let's divide ourselves. Let's split IV into 2 organization, one for EB3 dumbasses who are getting a free ride and didnt go thru the whole 9 yards , and other for smart kids like you and rimzhim.

    Let me ask both of you. If you are that smart, how come you are not applying for EB1. I thought researchers would qualify for EB1. Why are you facing difficulty? Could it be that you are not really that good? Because the system does have an HOV lane for scientists to cruise to greencard. Its called EB1. And its current for most categories. What about that?

    Why dont you join the fast lane of EB1 and leave the bachelor's degree losers behind who didnt thru the whole 9 yards?





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  • Macaca
    12-27 06:24 PM
    The Year That Was: Corruption Scandals of 2010 (http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/12/27/the-year-that-was-corruption-scandals-of-2010/) By Tripti Lahiri | IndiaRealTime

    This week, as we countdown to 2011, India Real Time casts a look back at the big news events of this year.

    We�re not sure we can say it was the best of times, but sometimes it certainly felt like the worst of times, at least for the Congress-led government, which saw a series of corruption scandals unfold on its watch.

    Here are the top five scandals of 2010, in chronological order:

    Tharoorgate: In April, then junior foreign minister Shashi Tharoor, a first-time MP from Kerala, was forced to resign after Indian Premier League founder Lalit Kumar Modi raised questions on Twitter about the equity given to a woman close to Mr. Tharoor in a consortium that successfully bid for a new franchise for an Indian Premier League cricket team.

    Mr. Tharoor denied that he stood to gain financially from the team, which was to represent a Kerala city.

    The ruckus led income-tax authorities to examine the ownership holdings in the league�s other teams. Meanwhile the body that regulates cricket in India began to look at Mr. Modi�s financial dealings with regard to the league and also relieved him of his post as IPL commissioner.

    By the end of 2010 Mr. Tharoor and the woman, public relations executive Sunanda Pushkar were married. It also looks like a team from Kochi will play in the next season of the Indian Premier League.

    The Commonwealth Games: The Games, estimated to cost $6 billion, were plagued by allegations of financial mismanagement, instances of work safety violations, construction accidents and extreme delays in the preparations.

    At one point it seemed possible that the Games may not take place at all as visiting delegations complained of filthy and incomplete worker accommodations and health concerns around dengue stemming a surge in mosquitoes in Delhi as a result of heavy monsoon rains this year.

    It looked set to be a national embarrassment but a snazzy opening ceremony smoothed things over and roused some sporting spirit from Delhi residents, though there continued to be reports of disorganization, including around ticket sales and with getting real-time results from the events.

    After the event, the prime minster promised a full investigation. On Friday, the Central Bureau of Investigation agency officials searched the office and residence of Indian Olympic Association president Suresh Kalmadi, chief Games organizer, and his assistant. Earlier, two other organizing officials were arrested.

    2G: The scandal over the potential revenue lost from from giving discounted spectrum to telecom companies in 2008 is the biggest of them all.

    The Controller and Auditor General said in November that the flawed allocation may have cost the government $40 billion in lost revenue, and the size of that figure has stoke public ire and given the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party loads of ammunition to attack the government.

    Ahead of the report being tabled in Parliament, Telecom minister A. Raja stepped down on Nov. 14, though he maintains he did nothing wrong. The Central Bureau of Investigation questioned him on Friday and Saturday.

    The 2G scandal led to even more wastage of taxpayer money than the $40 billion the audit report mentioned. The stalemate between the Congress and the BJP over the opposition�s demand for a parliamentary inquiry led to a parliamentary session that, according to some news reports, saw less than 10 hours of work take place.

    Tapegate: Just as the storm of criticism around the Congress Party�s record on governance was at its height, news reports appeared in two magazines that shifted the spotlight away from Mr. Raja and the spectrum allocations and on to reporters instead.

    The news reports carried transcripts of leaked phone taps of conversations between top reporters like NDTV�s Barkha Dutt, Hindustan Times columnist Vir Sanghvi, senior editors at various business dailies and corporate lobbyist Niira Radia, who represents the Tata Group and Reliance Industries chair Mukesh Ambani. The conversations were tapped by the income tax department after a tip-off that Ms. Radia might be a spy.

    The leaked conversations led many Indians to feel jaded with the news media, so far a fairly respected pillar of Indian democracy for its sting operations on officials. They accused influential journalists of being too close to corporate and political interests and of concealing the real news. Ms. Dutt and Mr. Sanghvi have said they did not pass on any messages on behalf of Ms. Radia, and that she was just one of many useful sources.

    This scandal made bigger news on Twitter than in the Indian press at first, and distracted attention away from the 2G investigation for a good month.

    Loan-fixing: And if all that wasn�t enough, in late November came the news that eight people had been arrested, including officials from the state-run Life Insurance Corporation�s mortgage arm, state-run banks and an investment firm. The Central Bureau of Investigation said the men collaborated in a conspiracy to funnel loan money to certain firms in exchange for bribes.





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  • easygoer
    01-08 12:28 PM
    Rayyan,

    You are a highly skilled person. Think objectively:

    1. This thread is not immigration related. It is a non-immigration thread that admins allow just as a communication platform among people and has nothing to do with IV.

    2. People can have their opinions. You really can't stop. It becomes objectionable when it is personal. Then, you report as Abusive link and moderators will take actions. I have reported couple of abusive language posts in past and action was taken in very short time.

    3. Please don't mix issues. Your efforts for enlightening people about immigration issues are appreciated. You should not leave because couple of threads are running that you don't like.

    My 2 cents to you, to bfadlia and everyone.

    My requests to all "Please end this discussion immediately". This is hurting our own people. There are no bad religion and good religion. We have seen over the time period whenever any relgion allowed their religion heads to dominate politics and day to day life (including Hindu, Christian in the past), they have created havoc. Every religion experienced this in the past. Please repect other's religion feeling and stop it. Let's concentrate on our main issue of immigration all together.





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  • Mel Gibson amp; #39;The Beaver#39;



  • mpadapa
    08-05 10:39 AM
    Rolling_Flood, great idea to benefit just U'r own GC cause. If you are positive about U'r logic why don't you go ahead and file a lawsuit. Looks like your true intention of creating this thread is to create a divide among IV members. Already members had a tough few weeks (in terms of unity) after the Aug bulletin. Now you are poking another rift.

    The EB classification is for a future job. Since the person is qualified, he ports to EB2 midway so what. The GC is for a future job, and when the person gets his/her GC, he/she is qualified for that position at that time. So what is U'r logic??


    If you want to truly fight the system them fight for a common basis for EB classification. There are cases where the same job title has been classified under all 3 categories. Example

    Senior Programmer (say Bachelor's with 5 yrs exp)

    Files under EB1 : because he/she came L1, qualification might be few yrs exp.
    Files under EB2 : because he/she has 5 yrs of exp and the attorney was smart to classify it as EB2.
    Files under EB3 : because of company policy or based on bad attorney advice (conservative approach).

    The above example shows that if U'r company and attorney is smart U can get U'r GC faster.

    If you are keen on doing a lawsuit why not
    File one against USCIS for wasting thousands of visa's over the past few years, which is the source of this backlog.
    Or file one against DOL for taking n number of years to get the LC done.
    Or file one against 245 filers who clogged the USCIS system which is causing USCIS to be inefficient.

    Friends,
    I need to find out how many people are interested in pursuing this option, since the whole interfiling/PD porting business (based on a year 2000 memo) can seriously undermine the EB2 category.

    I am currently pursuing some initial draft plans with some legal representation, so that a sweeping case may be filed to end this unfair practice. We need to plug this EB3-to-EB2 loophole, if there is any chance to be had for filers who have originally been EB2.

    More than any other initiative, the removal of just this one unfair provision will greatly aid all original EB2 filers. Else, it can be clearly deduced that the massively backlogged EB3 filers will flock over to EB2 and backlog it by 8 years or more.

    I also want to make this issue an action item for all EB2 folks volunteering for IV activities.

    Thanks.



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  • Legal
    07-10 09:54 AM
    ;)
    Actually this "slavery" terminology is good for us, we can strategically use this to promote legislation like SKIL among anti-immigrationists and Congressmen/ senators.

    ELIMINATING GC BACKLOGS WOULD END THIS SLAVERY....

    LEGAL IMMIGRANTS GETTING GC IN DUE TIME WOULD REDUCE H1 B SLAVERY





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  • File:CANNES (festival1).jpg



  • file485
    07-08 07:56 PM
    Assuming your husband is here from 2000, they are asking for 7 years, i.e. 12 * 7 = 84 months of paystubs? This is ridiculous. How many people keep paystubs from 7 years ago? Infact in those days paystubs used to have their social security numbers on them, they should be shredded, atleast that's the common advice.

    pls dont give wrong info..

    paystubs..W2's, tax returns r the most imp documents..especially for souls like us with employment based immigration..



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  • shensh
    04-09 10:03 AM
    There are many big companies that depend completely on consultants for their software projects. Example Sony, Boeing... If this applies to existing H1bs then their projects will suffer a great loss.

    ERP softwares basically are implemented by consulting firms .Then all big companies including Oracle,SAP cannot implement their applications anywhere as they have to hire people on their own to implement.All ERP implementations can be treated as consulting.This is going to be a big mess.

    I don't think this bill is going pass successfully.
    Not true. For many software development projects, it really doesn't matter whether the developers are located in US or in India. What they need onshore is project/program managers or IT architects, who they can hire directly via H1-B not via consulting firm. For those H1-Bs the new bill's restrictions will not be a problem.

    If this bill passes, I can see that many US employers start hiring the highly-valued onshore consultants as their employees via H1-B, and let the rest stay in consulting firm either onshore or offshore. It is so-called "insourcing" which is very popular among big firms nowadays. So this bill is going to be bad for H1-B based consulting firms, good for US employers and future H1-B workers (either new or extended). In the short term though, it is not going to help US workers much, because most companies would ship onshore consulting jobs offshore rather than hiring US workers to fill them. However, in the long term it prevents "some" consulting firms (bodyshoppers) from abusing H1-B workers which benefit us all. I expect this bill will also ease the EB retrogression in the future because there will be less H1-Bs waiting in queue especially from India or China.





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  • delax
    07-14 04:49 PM
    Its neither appropriate to exclaim like this.Whateverthe case may be it is ofcourse njustice to EB3.

    And how is this an injustice to EB3-I when EB3-I has always been behind EB2-I in the pecking order under either interpretation of the law.

    The attempt to equate EB2-I to EB3-I on compassionate grounds quite frankly is laughable - sorry, I have to call it as I see it. Quite the contrary, injustice to EB2 has been corrected and I welcome that.

    People seem to be suddenly forgetting that there is a clear preference established for each EB category. The real anguish here is to see EB2-I go ahead of EB3-I. Have the courage of conviction to say so.



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  • waitnwatch
    08-05 03:32 PM
    If that's the law then there is not much of a debate here!

    I think admin should close the thread as the point of a lawsuit is moot.
    Incorrect. Read for yourself.


    Sec. 204.5 Petitions for employment-based immigrants.

    ...

    ...

    (e) Retention of section 203(b)(1) (http://www.uscis.gov/propub/template.htm?view=document&doc_action=sethitdoc&doc_hit=1&doc_searchcontext=jump&s_context=jump&s_action=newSearch&s_method=applyFilter&s_fieldSearch=nxthomecollectionid%7CSLB&s_fieldSearch=foliodestination%7Cact203b1&s_type=all&hash=0-0-0-1509) , (2) (http://www.uscis.gov/propub/template.htm?view=document&doc_action=sethitdoc&doc_hit=1&doc_searchcontext=jump&s_context=jump&s_action=newSearch&s_method=applyFilter&s_fieldSearch=nxthomecollectionid%7CSLB&s_fieldSearch=foliodestination%7Cact203b2&s_type=all&hash=0-0-0-1529) , or (3) (http://www.uscis.gov/propub/template.htm?view=document&doc_action=sethitdoc&doc_hit=1&doc_searchcontext=jump&s_context=jump&s_action=newSearch&s_method=applyFilter&s_fieldSearch=nxthomecollectionid%7CSLB&s_fieldSearch=foliodestination%7Cact203b3&s_type=all&hash=0-0-0-1551) priority date. -- A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple petitions under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date. A petition revoked under sections 204(e) (http://www.uscis.gov/propub/template.htm?view=document&doc_action=sethitdoc&doc_hit=1&doc_searchcontext=jump&s_context=jump&s_action=newSearch&s_method=applyFilter&s_fieldSearch=nxthomecollectionid%7CSLB&s_fieldSearch=foliodestination%7Cact204e&s_type=all&hash=0-0-0-1773) or 205 (http://www.uscis.gov/propub/template.htm?view=document&doc_action=sethitdoc&doc_hit=1&doc_searchcontext=jump&s_context=jump&s_action=newSearch&s_method=applyFilter&s_fieldSearch=nxthomecollectionid%7CSLB&s_fieldSearch=foliodestination%7CACT205&s_type=all&hash=0-0-0-185) of the Act will not confer a priority date, nor will any priority date be established as a result of a denied petition. A priority date is not transferable to another alien.


    ____________________________
    US Permanent Resident since 2002





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  • StuckInTheMuck
    08-08 05:09 PM
    Q: Do you yield when a blind pedestrian is crossing the road?
    A: What for? He can't see my license plate.

    Q: Who has the right of way when four cars approach a four-way stop at the same time?
    A: The pick up truck with the gun rack and the bumper sticker saying, "Guns don't kill people. I do."

    Q: When driving through fog, what should you use?
    A: Your car.

    Q: What problems would you face if you were arrested for drunk driving?
    A: I'd probably lose my buzz a lot faster.

    Q: What changes would occur in your lifestyle if you could no longer drive lawfully?
    A: I would be forced to drive unlawfully.

    Q: What are some points to remember when passing or being passed?
    A: Make eye contact and wave "hello" if s/he is cute.

    Q: What is the difference between a flashing red traffic light and a flashing yellow traffic light?
    A: The color.

    Q: How do you deal with heavy traffic?
    A: Heavy psychedelics.

    Q: What can you do to help ease a heavy traffic problem?
    A: Carry loaded weapons.



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  • 2011 Mel Gibson and Jodie



  • xyzgc
    12-22 09:35 PM
    With all due respect XYZGC, I never said Kashmir should be gifted to Pakistan. What I have said is for a UN supervised solution. And I did not change my mind on that. We have fought three major wars and spending crores to maintain the status quo but to what end. It just a pain in @$$.

    I share you concerns about Hindu minority in Pakistan and other Islamic society. But to make it clear neither I am against Islam (Though I DO NOT support the present Islamic Leadership structure) nor I beleive that it is not even remotely possible to covert India into a Islamic Society. But one should be prepared just in case.

    On the other hand , I do beleive that by declaring Pakistan a terrorist nation it will force them to take some drastic steps.

    Yes, we agree. I am also not against islam but against islamic leadership, especially the hardliners who seem to be ruling the Pakistani and drowning out the voices of the moderates and intellectuals there. In fact, nobody is against any individual.
    And you never used the word "gifted". You already provided your reasons for saying whatever you did.





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  • sanju
    05-16 11:26 PM
    Looks like, the letter sent out to India based business houses by the US senators has surprised the Commerce minister of India, Kamalnath. He is going take this up with US in the global trade meet at Brussels.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Kamal_Nath_surprised_on_H1-B_visa_issue/articleshow/2055323.cms


    Kamalnath will do us all and the 9 companies a great service by staying out of this debate. He has already contributed by making "ignorant" statements like 'H-1B is a outsource visa". This guy has no clue about the issue at hand and he simply talks in broad strokes. If he jumps into the debate, that could be the last straw to break the camel's back. We will all be better off without him.



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  • Mel Gibson gives #39;one of his



  • kak1978
    06-05 10:46 AM
    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/home-price-to-rent_2009-01.png

    Althought this is just for seattle area, this trend is more or less the same nationwide.

    According to this graph we need to wait out atleast one more year for the Rent - to- Price ratio to come down to the historical averages. But you get the Federal first -time home owner credit of $8000 (more in CA) only if you buy before the end of this year. So in my opinion, a good time to buy a house is in the month of december this year, if not the best time to buy. Now this is with an assumsion that mortgage rates don't rise substantially.





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  • Macaca
    02-21 05:24 PM
    War on middle class is nothing less then a national crisis.

    I was listening to find out the exact statement they use: CNN is the best news on network. Turned off immediately.



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  • hiralal
    06-24 08:13 AM
    one of the main reason that I stopped looking for a home is GC. the reason I was hunting around was to get advantage of tax credit ..but when I read articles like this ..I feel waiting for some more time has advantages too !! (so even if you take best case scenario of 10% drop in your area ..a house which costs 250K will drop by 25K ??? which is 3 times the tax credit).
    -------------------------
    Searching for a bottom in the housing market
    Sales look like they could rebound soon, but you can't say the same for prices.

    See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close)
    By Janet Morrissey, contributor
    June 19, 2009: 4:23 AM ET

    FORTUNE 500
    Current Issue
    Subscribe to Fortune

    NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Sales in the decimated housing market may finally be bottoming, but don't expect home prices to stop dropping before mid-2010 at the earliest, analysts and economists say.

    Indeed, prices in the battered housing market could get a lot worse before they get better as an avalanche of specialized adjustable rate mortgages, known as option ARMs and Alt-A mortgages, are slated to reset over the next 18 to 24 months, and rising unemployment causes a surge in the number of prime mortgages going into default. All of this is expected to trigger another round of foreclosures and cause home prices to tumble at least another 20% before the market rebounds, according to market analysts and economists.

    Market bulls believe home prices could bottom in the second half of 2010, but the bears warn it could be 2013 before they finally trough. And once prices do reach a low, it could be years before they significantly rebound.
    0:00 /4:19Housing market's false hope

    "This is clearly the worst housing crisis since the Depression," says John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Losses from the housing meltdown totaled $3.6 trillion at the end of 2008, and will likely approach $5 trillion by the time the crisis ends, predicts Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors.

    Bob Curran, managing director at Fitch Ratings, is a lot more cautious, noting that one month of gains doesn't make a trend -- existing home sales are still off 3.5% from a year ago. "You'd want to see a string of months -- ideally three months -- to say with confidence that a bottom has been reached," he says.

    "We're about two-thirds of the way through the pricing correction on a percentage basis," says Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist with MFR Inc., an economic consulting and analysis firm. He expects prices to slide at least another 20% over the next 18 months.





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  • lfwf
    08-05 02:37 PM
    And let me add another twist to the story.

    The Guy with Masters degree is working with a desi sweatshop and convinced his masters (No pun) to file for Eb2 even though his job duties were just dish out code like a high school grad can do. On the other hand there was another guy who was in US for a decade , gone though masters degree and got a very good job in a very good company. He was eligible for EB2 but his only mistake was to not force the company to file a EB2 case or even worse his lawyer makes a mistake and files under Eb3 even though the job he was in and he are qualified as Eb2. The company wants to make amends now by filing a EB2 case and first MS guy (sweatshop guy) wants him to start again and wait for another decade.

    The kicker : The sweat shop labor guy works in the same company as contractor and reports to the second guy and in the same reporting chain, just two levels below him.



    How about another story :

    Both guys go to the same engg school back home. One guy passed with distinction and got a job immediately in a respectable company immediately. Other guy takes two additional years to finish the degree , but his dad was rich enough to send him to the US to complete the MS and now he thinks he is smarter than every one else and needs a special place in the queue.


    You can come up with 100s of stories if not more. Therefore you can't generalize. Just don't think all those who filed under EB2 first are with MS and smarter than others and all those who are Eb3 are here by shady means.



    I am not taking sides here, but it is not a question of "smarter". I have a simple question. Do years spent doing MS/PhD have no value? They count for nothing in PD. On the other hand a person with a BS accumulates 5 years in the same time and ports. Now he/she is a full 5 years ahead of the one that pursued the education route. Fair?

    I don't think that porting is all fair. Just MHO that the 5 year experience rule negates all efforts in getting a masters degree/PhD and puts those people at a huge disadvantage. The system tried to make up for that by creating preference categories. Not that they work perfectly of course as many of you have pointed out.

    So let me come to the point, question for OP. Are you against all porting? Or only against porting based on lack of qualifications for an EB2 job originally- then porting 5 years later based on the additional experience alone?

    BTW I resent the insinuation that 1% of EB2s are genuine. The same can be said of many many EB3s- remember the qualifications required are much lower.
    I also resent the idea that all US Masters folks are just "rich kids". Most people work through the degree and/or take loans. Please don't start making needless statements. If you had a masters originally and your job qualified as EB2 but your company refused- I feel for you, I really do. There should be a solution to your problem. That does not mean that those who did get EB2 were all suddenly not "genuine".

    Also I want to clarify something- this is purely objective now. Yes GC is for a "future job" but folks are over reaching with some of the arguments. In order to get an EB2 (or EB3) for this "future job- you either have to show current employment with the sponsor OR show the job offer qualifying for that category at the time you apply. The "future job" cannot be a nebulous idea that you make concrete at a later time.



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  • ThinkTwice
    09-26 02:20 PM
    The kind of delay in the GC process, the uncertainity involved and now added to this is the possibility of the Obama administration if elected making it difficult for EB GC applicants.
    We have already anticipated this and had applied for the UK Highly Skilled Migrant Program (HSMP). We will most likely move to UK soon.. as soon as the elections are over.. a matter of few weeks. Unfortunate that after staying in this country for 12 years, having graduated from one of the best schools and having worked and having been a part of this great nation this is where it may all end for us. Whats even worse is that our son who is a US citizen will grow up in some other nation.
    Well.. time to move on.





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  • kaisersose
    04-15 02:12 PM
    I am on H1B and I485 is pending. I just bought a mid-price house and I will recommend to buy only if your I140 is approved. I waited for many years but finally bought one. Buying the house was a big decision but I am glad that I took it. I have a 3 year old daughter and she being able to run in our own backyard is worh of some financial risk. The house prices are lower (still I think a little higher than it should be) and the interest rate is good too. So, go for it and good luck.

    Per iwantmygreen you (just like me) are here to hurt his/her emotions. Apparently we get a kick out of that.





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  • apt29
    08-05 03:14 PM
    The whole notion of EB2/EB3 was introduced before bigtime arrival of IT industry. In IT, the difference in job requriements between the EB2 and EB3 are thin and vague. Hence the confusion. It is possible that some EB3 folks applied, so there was risk of denial at that time(1998-2003) even with BS+5 years experience and IT industry is just catching up. So a lot folks, who waited to applied later (2004-) went for EB2.





    validIV
    06-05 11:43 AM
    Sorry but no matter how you spin it, owning a home is better than renting. Renting is not smart. period. your money is gone every month. You are not getting that money back.

    When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.

    30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.





    Macaca
    12-29 08:01 PM
    It is thus crucial for socially-engaged activists, even if they do not subscribe to religion personally, to enter the terrain of religious discourse and contest and critique the claims of those who speak in its name and deploy it as a tool to promote hatred against what are defined as the religious and national 'other'.

    Efforts to improve relations between India and Pakistan, and Hindus and Muslims in South Asia, can hardly make any headway if this indispensable task continues to be so sorely neglected.


    How Terrorism Still Looms Over Asia (http://the-diplomat.com/2010/12/29/how-terrorism-still-looms-over-asia/) By Luke Hunt | The Diplomat